Sea Surface Currents (arrows) & Sea Surface Temperature (color) Nowcast/Forecast Fields

The experimental nowcast and forecast fields displayed to the right are produced by a computer model of the Oregon coastal ocean circulation. These forecasts are updated daily at approximately 12:15 pm. Click here to view enlarged versions of the thumbnail images.

An important part of the input to the model is a 5-day record of winds over the Oregon coast. This record is derived from an operational weather forecast model, and covers the past two days and the forecast for the coming three days. Each day, the model takes this record and its previous estimate of the ocean state from two days before, and combines it with a mathematical representation of the physical principles for fluid motion. The result is, each day, a 3-day nowcast and forecast record.

The model should be most successful at predicting the direct response to the local winds, such as coastal upwelling of cold deep water and the associated formation of strong alongshore currents along the sea surface temperature front. Presently, it is not capable of predicting events that develop in response to changing conditions in the surrounding ocean. In addition, some coastal currents may behave chaotically, and so be intrinsically difficult or impossible to predict. This behavior arises from internal processes that are analogous to those in winter storms in the atmosphere, but occur on smaller scales within the ocean. Systematic evaluation of the model nowcasts and forecasts, based on remote-sensing and in-situ measurements of ocean conditions, is in progress. User comments on the utility and accuracy of the research model products available on this website are encouraged, and may be submitted here.

Drs. Lana Erofeeva, Byoung-Ju Choi, Alexander Kurapov, Roger Samelson, and Gary Egbert at COAS, OSU have contributed to the development of this operational coastal ocean model, which is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Currents, temperature, salinity, sea surface height, and other dynamic information are obtained at 3-km resolution. The wind and surface heat flux forcing are obtained from the NOAA/NCEP mesoscale atmospheric NAM operational forecast model. The model also utilizes information about average seasonal changes in the surrounding ocean, derived from the 4-year output of the 9-km resolution Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) NCOM-CCS regional model (J. Kindle, S. de Rada). The basic model configuration is based on related research described by Oke et al. (2002a, 2002b) and Kurapov et al. (2005a, 2005b).

This nowcast and forecast information is provided by the Oregon Coastal Ocean Simulator Group

This work has been supported by the Cooperative Institute for Ocean Satellite Studies (CIOSS).

Disclaimer: The coastal ocean forecasts displayed here are an experimental product intended for research use only. In no event will OSU or any of its employees be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of these research model forecasts.

Kurapov, A. L., J. S. Allen, G. D. Egbert, R. N. Miller, P. M. Kosro, M. Levine, and T. Boyd, 2005a. Distant effect of assimilation of moored currents into a model of coastal wind-driven circulation off Oregon, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C02022, doi: 10.1029/2003JC002195.

Kurapov, A. L., J. S. Allen, G. D. Egbert, R. N. Miller, P. M. Kosro, M. Levine, T. Boyd, J. A. Barth, 2005b. Assimilation of moored velocity data in a model of coastal wind-driven circulation off Oregon: multivariate capabilities, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C10S08, doi: 10.1029/2004JC002493, (COAST Special Issue).

Oke, P. R., J. S. Allen, R. N. Miller, G. D. Egbert, and P. M. Kosro 2002a. Assimilation of surface velocity data into a primitive equation coastal ocean model. J. Geophys. Res., 107(C9), 3122, doi:10.1029/2000JC000511, 2002.

Oke, P. R., J. S. Allen, R. N. Miller, G. D. Egbert, J. A. Austin, J. A. Barth, T. J. Boyd, P. M. Kosro, and M. L. Levine, 2002b. A modeling study of the three-dimensional continental shelf circulation off Oregon. Part I: Model-data comparisons. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 1360-1382.